Browsing by Author "Richard J. Camp"

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    2022–2024 Status and trends of the palila (Loxioides bailleui)
    (University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 2025-05-07) Noah Hunt; Chauncey K. Asing; Lindsey Nietmann; Paul C. Banko; Richard J. Camp
    Palila (Loxioides bailleui) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on the seedpods of māmane (Sophora chrysophylla) and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. A previous analysis of survey data estimated an 89% population decline between 1998 and 2021. Using the most recent annual survey data from 2022, 2023, and 2024, we report updated annual population estimates and trends since 1998. The 2022 population estimate was 367–742 birds (point estimate: 545); the 2023 population estimate was 374–842 birds (point estimate: 596); and the 2024 population estimate was 412–970 birds (point estimate: 666). Our estimates for survey years prior to 2022 were within the confidence intervals of the estimates from the previous analysis. Our models likewise showed a population fluctuating between 4,000 and 6,800 birds from 1998 to 2005 (except for an unusually low estimate in 2000), and then a steep decline through 2010. For the next decade, palila abundance fluctuated between 776 and 1,346 birds, before declining again in 2021 to 679 birds. From 1998 to 2024, the population declined by >90% or 203 birds/year, with very strong statistical evidence of an overall downward trend.
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    Distribution and trends of endemic Hawaiian waterbirds, 1986–2023
    (2024-10-07) P. Marcos Gorresen; Richard J. Camp; Eben H. Paxton
    This study updates the status assessment of four endemic endangered Hawaiian waterbird species—ae‘o (Hawaiian stilt, Himantopus mexicanus knudseni), ‘alae ke‘oke‘o (Hawaiian coot, Fulica alai), ‘alae ‘ula (Hawaiian gallinule, Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), and koloa maoli (Hawaiian duck, Anas wyvilliana)—from 1986 to 2016 by incorporating new data from 2017–2023. State-space models, which account for biological and sampling variation, were fitted to estimate population sizes and trends from both core and non-core wetland survey sites. Long-term trends (1986–2023) largely show increasing populations for all four species, but recent short-term trajectories (2013–2023) are to a greater degree than previous analyses, predominantly negative, indicating accentuated declines in some island populations. Summer counts have declined relative to winter counts over the 38-year period, indicating potential changes in habitat availability and breeding patterns due to shifting rainfall patterns. Although negative trends were apparent in some non-core wetlands, our study underscores the importance of both core and non-core wetlands for waterbird populations.
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    Power analysis of water quality of standing water bodies in the Pacific Island Network, 2009–2017
    (2024-10-25) P. Marcos Gorresen; Richard J. Camp; David F. Raikow
    The National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Division (IMD) aims to provide data on park ecosystems' health to guide management decisions. Since 2007, NPS IMD has monitored water quality in marine areas, streams, anchialine pools, wetlands, and lakes in the Pacific Island Network (PACN) national parks. To maintain long-term monitoring program efficiency, protocols are reviewed and revised every 10 years based on trend analyses, including new power analyses for significant sampling regime changes. This report focuses on standing water bodies, evaluating statistical power across different sampling intensities to detect water quality trends and anomalies. It covers 10 areas with a varying number of sample stations. Data from 2009–2017 for nine water quality parameters were examined, and statistical power was assessed by using linear regression and Wilcoxon two-sample tests with 80% power and a Type I error rate of 0.05. Results show that higher sampling effort and larger effect sizes increase the power to detect changes, although power varies by parameter and site due to differences in mean and variance. The analysis results may be used to devise optimal sampling strategies, including balancing the number of sample sites and sampling frequency. Periodic evaluations and adaptive strategies are essential for maintaining statistical power and for the long-term management of the PACN water quality monitoring program, especially in the context of climate change.